Was March the top of this cycle, or a pause before the next leg?

Junior mining's financing taps reopened this year. The real question is whether they stay open.

Start with the three-year arc. 2023 and 2024 were flat — around US$17bn raised each year at the sub-$100m end of the market. 2025 turned hard: US$29.9bn, up 65%. And H1 2026 alone did US$18bn, more than either full plateau year.

But look at the shape of it. Monthly volumes peaked in March and have fallen every month since — 514 companies raising that month, down to 317 in July. Roughly 38% off the peak in four months. H1's headline number was front-loaded into the first quarter, not building through it.

Underneath the totals, the cheques got bigger. The median raise in H1 2026 was US$2.64m, up 76% on the same period last year. Fewer names writing bigger cheques looks like a flight to quality rather than a broad reopening.

On the arrangers: 2,757 companies raised over three years, and a handful of banks were involved in most of it.

Canaccord Genuity — Global Capital Markets is well clear with 449 client companies, then Macquarie Group, Bell Potter Securities, Euroz Hartleys Limited, and Sprott.

You can only catch a turn like this if you're reading it live, off the RNS and exchange feeds, not waiting on a quarterly refresh.

So: was March the top of this cycle, or a pause before the next leg?

All figures are sub-$100m raises (USD-equivalent). Arranger counts are distinct client companies where the firm is named in any billed role — lead, joint, co-manager, bookrunner, underwriter or placing agent — so they measure involvement, not sole-lead mandates. Source: Pulse Intelligence, company announcements.

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